Climate Change Impacts on the Snow Melt and Flows

The reduction in the snow cover that may occur as a result of climate change may have a negative impact on the water resources in the watersheds which are fed by snow. The aim of the project is; in the Upper Euphrates Basin (Keban Dam Basin), where the major dams, mainly for energy purposes, drinking water supply and irrigation large dams, are formed by the snow melt in the spring months, detection the effects of climate change on snow load and melting and the changes in these streams. In project scope;

  • By creating a digital Elevation Model, the minimum snow level, snow load-altitude relationship, snow-water equivalent ratio, average snowing period and rate of the basin for previous years are determined. The snow cover of the region will be characterized by evaluating based on these information.
  • MODIS and IMS satellite imagery will be used to create of snow withdrawal which are showing changes in certain elevation zones.
  • In three hydrological modeling studies conducted with the help of HEC-HMS, HBV and Artificial Neural Networks; Simulations of flows arising from snow melts in drainage areas will be prepared depending on the characteristics of the snow.
  • In order to obtain future projections; projections produced according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of MPI-ESM-MR and RegCM coupler will be used.
  • The established snow melting models will be operated with the projections obtained and the changes that may occur in the amount and period of snowfalls for the period of 2020-2100 will be determined.